Tuesday, October 31, 2023

SABR stock | Morningstar analysis report | August 2023

 Sabre's financial health was tested in 2020, as lower demand from COVID-19 and higher incremental investment into new markets and the cloud, caused its near-term net debt/adjusted EBITDA to breach covenants. While Sabre's net debt/adjusted EBITDA ended 2019 at 3.1 times, it turned negative in 2020 and 2021, and was at an elevated 60 times ratio in 2022 as EBITDA was barely positive. Sabre's liquidity profile remains under duress, as a simmering U.S. regional banking crisis and slowing economic growth keep credit costs high and the pace of corporate travel recovery uncertain. To this point, Sabre recently raised $700 million private tender at 16% payment-in-kind rates, which was used to pay 2025 maturing debt. We expect Sabre's net debt/adjusted EBITDA to improve to 7.5 times in 2024, followed by 3.9 in 2025. The company's EBIT/interest coverage was 2.3 times in 2019 and is expected to surpass that level by 2028. We project free cash flow generation of $1.6 billion during 2023-27.

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