Monday, May 6, 2019

You Are Forced to Declare Bankruptcy

Here is the article.

According to the Consumer Bankruptcy Project, the number of older Americans who have declared bankruptcy has tripled since 1991. The project found 12.2% of 800,000 bankruptcy filings it analyzed were submitted from households headed by seniors. "For an increasing number of older Americans, their golden years are fraught with economic risks, the result of which is often bankruptcy," Consumer Bankruptcy Project’s report noted.
The reasons? The University of Idaho’s Deborah Thorne, the study’s lead author, told NPR at least two factors are contributing to the rise of retirement-age bankruptcies: medical expenses and falling income. “So it could be, you know, they lost money in 2008, or they've outlived their retirement 'cause they no longer get a defined benefit or a pension,” said Thorne. “So they've had a decline in income, or they've had medical expenses that they just absolutely cannot keep up with.”
Reliable income streams and adequate insurance are critical to retirees, but avoiding bankruptcy in retirement actually starts well before you retire. The key is reducing or eliminating your major debts – mortgage, credit card, student loan, auto loan and medical debt – before you stop working and switch over to a fixed income. If you need help developing strategies to tackle these debts, get a referral to a certified credit counselor from the National Foundation for Credit Counseling.

You Bankroll the Kids

Here is the article.

It’s part of raising a family: You want to give your children a leg up by helping with college tuition or contributing to a down payment on their first home. But you can’t always be The First Bank of Mom & Dad. Your own financial security should be your priority.
“One of the most common financial mistakes parents make is funding their child’s education before taking care of their own retirement needs,” says Schwab-Pomerantz. “The point is that you won’t be of much use to your child or anyone else in the future if you can’t take care of yourself. So as long as you’re saving enough for your own retirement, then by all means help your kids with college. But if you’re paying for college at the expense of your own retirement savings, remember that there are many ways to cover the cost of college including financial aid, grants, student loans and scholarships. But there aren’t any scholarships for retirement.”
As for that new house, talk to your kids about their funding options. If they don’t have enough for a traditional 20% down payment on the home of their dreams, they might need to rent a cheaper place or (gasp!) move into your basement until they save enough. Or, they might need to scale back and target a less expensive starter home. Or, they might need to think unconventionally and find a roommate to share housing costs.

You Rely On a Single Source of Income

Here is the article link.

Roughly 3 out of 4 workers cite Social Security as the primary source of income in retirement, according to Transamerica. At the same time nearly half of American workers fear Social Security will be reduced or cease to exist by the time they retire. (It won’t.)
However, Social Security alone probably won’t be enough to see you comfortably through retirement. Having multiple income streams is the smartest play for retirees. Lean on a mix of a pension, if you’re among the fortunate few to have one; a 401(k) from your job; your own IRAs, either Roth or traditional; and the aforementioned annuities that can provide either lump sums of cash or steady payouts, depending on the type of annuity you choose.

Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz: "The Charles Schwab Guide to Finance after Fifty" | Talks at Google

Here is the link.

20:00 - 25:00

Fear of market - inflation - age in 20s should be high in diversified growth equity


You Invest Too Much in Stocks

Here is the article.

Wait a minute: Stocks are risky. "You don't want to have too much in stocks, especially if you're so reliant on that portfolio, because of the volatility of the market," says Schwab-Pomerantz. One route has nearing-retirement investors moving to 60% stocks as you approach retirement, and then trimming back to 40% stocks in early retirement and 20% later in retirement.
“Diversification is critical, too,” says Schwab-Pomerantz. “That means having a mix of small-cap, large-cap and international stocks, as well as a mix of industries and companies within those categories. While diversification doesn’t ensure a profit or eliminate the risk of investment losses, too much of any one stock carries a major risk of its own. Think mutual funds and exchange-traded funds for easy ways to get this diversification.”
Diversification also means investing beyond stocks. For steady sources of retirement income, look into U.S. Treasuries, municipal bonds, corporate bonds and real-estate investment trusts (REITs), to name a few options. Owning gold is another way to diversify your portfolio, as is owning real estate.

Facts to review

mutual funds and exchange-traded funds instead of stocks
60% stocks 
40%
20%

Best ETFs in Canada for 2019

Here is the link.


Top three biggest surprise return from 2009 to 2019

May 6, 2019

Introduction


I like to continue to figure out returns from 2010 to 2019. I learn that VGT ETF return is 600%, which is highest one I learn so far. I like to write down a short research top returns in ETF.


15 Reasons You'll Go Broke in Retirement - No. 1

Here is the link.


You Abandon Stocks

For those who survived (or are still recovering from) the Great Recession, it’s burned-in knowledge that stocks can be a risky investment. After a series of wild market swings in 2018, the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500-stock index ended the year in the red, down 6.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index actually fell into a bear market last year, defined as a drop of 20% or more from a recent peak. It’s scary to watch your nest egg shrink as you head into retirement, and the kneejerk reaction may be to pull all of your money out of stocks.
That would be wrong. Retirement experts say you’ll likely need at least some of your savings in stocks throughout retirement for diversification and growth potential. Consider this: Despite 2018’s woes, the S&P 500 gained an astounding 276.9% since the market bottomed out in March 2009.
“While there is no one-size-fits-all answer for what your stock allocation should be in retirement, for most people, stocks should account for anywhere from 40% to 60% of their portfolio in the years just prior to and after retirement, with the rest invested in bonds and cash,” says Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz, president of the Charles Schwab Foundation and author of The Charles Schwab Guide to Finances After Fifty. “Where you fall on that range depends on your personal tolerance for risk, how much you expect to rely on your portfolio for income, and your anticipated longevity. But the important thing is to have some opportunity for growth that will outpace inflation.”

Facts to review

276.9%
March 2009 - May 2019
S&P 500

1. Despite 2018’s woes, the S&P 500 gained an astounding 276.9% since the market bottomed out in March 2009.

40% to 60%
2. Stocks should account for anywhere from 40% to 60% of their portfolio in the years just prior to and after retirement

Case study: 1996 Florida Atlantic University Scholarship letter

May 6, 2019

Introduction


It is my personal finance research. I like to write a short case study of my 1996 Florida Atlantic University Scholarship letter. It brought so much joy in that summer of 1996. I was so excited to learn that I will go overseas and start a new journey in my life.


An offer letter


I will document the offer letter here.


Case study: My first I20 in Florida Atlantic University

May 6, 2019

Introduction


It is my personal finance research. I like to write down my short research about my first I20 in Florida Atlantic University. I like to write down my journey how to develop a strong interest in software programming slowly, with so many help from the University and others from 1996 to 2019.


Case study


My first I20 will be a very good document for me to study. I have so many stories to tell from two pages document. I like to figure out how to help myself to learn in 50s, and face challenging in finance area I choose to work on.


Comparison study: Jianmin Chen vs billionaire Jame Simons

May 6, 2019

Introduction


It is my personal finance research. I like to write a short research how a Chinese single lady likes to relate to the story from mathematician to billionaire Jame Simons.

Facts to review


I like to present my asset shown in mint.com every day. Compared to billions, I only manage less than $100,000 asset besides a condo in the city of Boca Raton.

So let me do a simple math, my asset is less than $100,000, and it is 0.0001, 1 base point of 1 billion dollar.

I just learned that my biggest mistake is not to learn how to use my 401K and IRA from 2002 to 2019. I should have learned finance by myself, and then grow those fund with S&P index since it grows 265% over 10 years from 2010 to 2019.


Education background


Industry experience


Finance study



Case study: Journey From Mathematics to Finance

May 6, 2019

Introduction


It is my personal finance research. I like to write my journey from mathematics to finance research from 1996 to 2019. I like to figure out why I develop the interest to study the finance and try to solve my finance problem as a single Canadian over 50 years old.

1996 August


I still remembered the joy to get F1 visa and got teaching assistantship from Florida Atlantic University. I was so excited. I worked full time from 1994 to 1996 two years, and then I purchased a super expensive airline ticket around $6000 RMB. When I came to Florida, I ran out of money to pay the student insurance. I had to ask a loan from Math Chinese professor less than $1000 dollar to pay insurance, and waited the teaching assitantship to pay back.

I lived in the math professor's home in the biggest living room I had visited the first time for the first three days. And then I moved to a 2 bedroom apartment with a Physics major student as a roommate. 13 st, meadow reach.


Dr. James Simons, S. Donald Sussman Fellowship Award Fireside Chat Series. Chat 2. March 6, 2019

May 6, 2019

Here is the link.


Sunday, May 5, 2019

Become a Master of Finance with Harvard Professor Mihir Desai (with Lewis Howes)

Here is 45 minutes interview.


Malcolm Baker

Here is the wiki page.

Billionaire James Simons: Conquering Wall Street with Mathematics

Here is one hour video's link.

Video Segments: 0:00 Introduction 4:25 Early Life 8:04 MIT 10:35 Road trip to South America 12:18 Berkley 13:18 First investments 18:20 Urge to do something different/ First business 20:26 Back to academia 26:09 Opposing the war/ Getting fired 30:45 Stony Brook University 36:26 Managing money 39:39 Becoming a trader 45:53 Renaissance technologies/ What makes it successful 49:40 Simons foundation 54:04 Mathematics as a refuge 55:40 Retirement 57:19 Guiding principles 1:00:45 Start of Q&A 1:01:12 When not to do something? 1:02:20 Thoughts on hedge fund industry today? 1:04:31 Why do you focus on collaborative goals? 1:06:30 How did your parents help foster your mathematical knowledge? 1:07:15 When you look back, would you change anything? 1:08:14 Do you think you should share your knowledge? 1:09:52 Thoughts on mathematics education? 1:17:55 Bourbaki movement?

The mathematician who cracked Wall Street | Jim Simons

Here is the link.


Snap Judgment: When to Trust Your Instincts, When to Ignore Them, and How to Avoid Making Big Mistakes with Your Money Hardcover – June 19, 2009

I like to read the book if I can find time.


David Adler

I like to read the book 投资决策中的心理博弈 in Chinese if I have time. Here is the link.

Here is the author's linkedin profile.


Principles for Success from Ray Dalio: Founder of the World’s Largest Hedge Fund

Here is the link of TED talk.

James Harris Simons

Here is the wiki article. James is a hedge fund manager.

股票有哪些入门的基础知识 ?

Here is the link.




美国股市基本概念(1)

Here is the link. 


股票(Stocks) 

  当一家公司为了要扩充其业务或资金不足时,股票的发行将是筹集资金的一个方法,而它是众多筹集资金方法中的一个管道。股票分为二种形式:普通股(Common Stock)及优先股(Preferred Stock)。通常一家公司发行普通股有以下二种选择:1。向大众出售股票,此种作法是公司雇用承销商(Underwriters)依目前的市场价格首次公开发行股票(Initial Public Offering)。2。向原来股东出售股票,使得旧股东能够买到比市价便宜公司的新股票。 

  优先股(Preferred Stock): 

  一般来说,公司如果赚钱,每年优先股的股东有优先权利配到股利,而普通股的股东则需等候有优先权的股东发放完股利才可配到股利。优先股有以下四种: 

  累积优先股:股利可以用每年累计方式一次算给优先股的股东。 

  参与优先股:如果普通股的股利超过太多数目,优先股的股东可分到特别股利。

  可赎回优先股:原先出售股票的公司有权利向股东以高价赎回其股票。 

  可转换优先股:优先股能够转成一定数量之普通股。 

  普通股(Common Stock): 

  普通股有选举董事会(Board of Directors)的权利、公司与其它公司合并(Consolidation)、解散(Dissolution)、及修改公司章程时的投票权。 

  普通股的股东只对其所购买的股份负责,不会因为公司之破产而受牵连。 

  普通股的股东所拥有的股份可以自由转让给他人。 

  普通股的股东有分配股息的权利,但在公司破产时,却是最后才有权利分配其资产。 

  投资人购买股票数量多寡基本上分为二种: 

  整数股(Round Lots):通常在证券交易所被认可的最小交易单位数量。在纽约证券交易所,股票的交易单位数量是100股,债券的单位是票面1,000元或5,000元;而不像台湾是以1,000股为一张股票的单位。 

  畸零股(Odd Lots):在美国投资人也可以在网路上逢低点时下单购买零星的股票,如IBM电脑公司10股或15股等,而每次并不一定必须购买整数的100股。 

  涨跌幅限制: 

  美国股票没有如同台湾7%的涨跌幅限制,所以对利多与利空的反应比较激烈,故您可看到经常性的大涨或大跌。 

  股票类别(Classification of Stocks): 

  蓝筹股(Blue Chip Stocks)=>一些闻名的大公司股票称作蓝筹股。这类公司有著盈余稳定成长和定期支付股息的长久记录,其优良的产品,经营管理和服务也享誉遐迩。这类的股票包括大家所熟悉的IBM电脑公司,奇异电器(GE)以及宝碱(PG)公司等。 

  成长股(Growth Stocks)=>指公司的销售、盈利、以及市场成长快速到超过一般产业的股票。通常这种公司只会发放极少或甚至没有任何股息给它的股东们。例如现在的高科技电子股。 

  防卫性股(Defensive Stocks)=>指在经济不景气的情况下,公司的股票能够稳定的成长以抵制经济衰退。比方电力、瓦斯公司、餐饮店、以及民生用品。 

  收益股(Income Stocks)=>指公司愿意付比市价更高的股息给它的股东。这种类型的股票最容易吸引一些年纪大的或者已退休的人(大部份美国公共事业所发行的股票都是这种收益股)。 

  股价循环股(Cyclical Stocks)=>指公司所发行的股票会随著商业周期而改变。例如钢铁业、水泥业、机械业、以及汽车业都是这类型的工业。 

  季节股(Seasonal Stocks)=>指公司赚钱与否与季节有关。像美国一些零售商,当学校开学日及圣诞节来临时才是他们物品销售最快也最好的时节。 

  美国存托凭证(American Depository Receipts(ADRs)=>指一些外国公司的股票在美国境内挂牌销售。以美金发放股息,而不是以该国家的货币发放股息。例如台积电在纽约证券交易所挂牌的ADR,代号为TSM。 

  股息(Stock Dividends)分配及股票分割(Stock Split) 

  股息(Dividends)分配的五个重要日期: 

  股息宣布日期(Declaration Date)=>董事会决定何时为分发股息之日期。

  除去股息日期(Ex-dividend Date)=>即是没有股息之日。投资者在〝除去股息〞当天或以后买进股票则无权分配到股息,必须在“除去股息之前一天”购买,才有分配股息之权利;相反地,投资者在〝除去股息〞当天或以后才卖出股票,则仍可分配到股息。 


  股权登记日期(Record Date)=>如果股东希望能够分配到股息,他的名字必须登记在公司的名册上,并且他得在〝分配股息之股权登记日期〞当天或以前买进股票才能分到股息。 

  行使日(Exercise Day又称E day)=>股价真正变更的日期。

  股息发放日期(Payment Date)=>股息正式发放给股东之日。 

  股票分割(Stock Split): 

  当公司的股价上涨得太高的时候,通常公司会将它一张股票分割成为二张股票,二张变三张,或者四张变五张等等。如此一来,股票的总数量变多但是单张股票的面值却变小了。由于股票看涨(Bullish)以致于股票被分割,这意味著公司将来获利良好,届时股票价格会上涨。美国的股票分割类似台股的除权,行情好的时候,在股票分割当天也许股价会上涨。 

  范例一:陈小姐拥有1,000股波音公司(BA)的股票,当公司宣布2:1股票分割后,陈小姐原有的1,000股股票便会变为2,000股。 

  1,000 x(2/1)=2,000 

  如果1股股票原先价钱是¥40元,那么分割后的价钱便为: 

  ¥40 x(1/2)=¥20 

  基本上股票的总数还是一样的。在股票未分割前它的价值是¥40,000元(1,000股x¥40元)。分割后它的总价值还是¥40,000元(2,000股x¥20元)。

  范例二:洪小姐拥有400股娇生(JNJ)公司的股票,当娇生将其股票分割为5:4后,洪小姐原有的400股股票便会变为500股。 

  400 x(5/4)=500 

  如果1股股票原先价钱是¥50元,那么有分割后的价钱便为: 

  ¥50 x(4/5)=¥40 

  基本上股票的总数还是一样的。在股票未分割前它的价值是¥20,000元(400股x¥50元)。分割后它的总价值还是¥20,000元(500股x¥40元)。 

  反向分割(Reverse Split): 

  反向分割的作用在于提高股票的价钱,它跟股票分割正好是相反的。在反向分割里投资人可以换到更少的股票。 

  范例一:柯太太拥有600股惠普(HWP)科技公司的股票,当惠普将其股票分割为1:2后,柯太太原有的600股股票便会变为300股。 

  600 x(1/2)=300 

  如果1股股票原先价钱是¥50元,那么反向分割后的价钱便为:

  ¥50 x(2/1)=¥100 

  基本上股票的总数还是一样的。在股票未分割前它的价值是¥30,000元(600股x¥50元)。分割后它的价值还是¥30,000元(300股x¥100元)。

美国股票的各种分类介绍

Here is the link.

我们通常所说的股票包括普通股和优先股两部分。两者的清算顺序是其最大的区别:公司破产清算时,优先股先取得清偿,普通股在后。而且一般情况下,优先股所支付的红利是固定的,但缺点是许多优先股没有投票权。在美国股票市场上,普通股占有大部分的比重,在进行交易时,都是指的买卖普通股。在一定前提下,优先股的持有者可以转换成普通股,但并不是所有公司都允许。
  还有一点需要说明,一些上市公司想让一个特定的群体长期固定地掌握投票权,就根据自己的需要把公司的股票设计成几个不同的级别,例如“Class A”和“Class B”,不同级别的股票持有者所具有的投票权是不同的。举例来说,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司就把自己的普通股股票设计成“BRK.A”和“BRK.B”,BRK.B的价格为每股80美元,而BRK.A的价格则为每股12万美元,价格差距十分大。
  一、按股票市值来划分
  一个公司的股票价格乘以已发行股票的数量就是一个上市公司的市值,它是衡量一个上市公司规模大小的一个标准。美国公司的股票根据市值的大小也有不同的类型。大概的分类标准如下所示:
  分类
  市值
  Nano-cap
  小于5,000万美元
  Micro-cap
  5,000万到3-5亿美元
  Small-cap
  3-5亿到20亿美元
  Mid-cap
  20亿到100亿美元
  Large-cap
  100亿到1,000-2,000亿美元
  Mega-cap
  1,000-2,000亿美元以上
  大多数基金和机构的投资者通常情况下都会选择较大市值的公司股票,因为大市值公司的股票价格相对稳定,投资的风险也比较小,而小市值公司的股票往往价格波动比较大,因此投资的风险大,然而个人投资者投资小市值的公司可能获得更多的回报,只要你愿意花费精力去研究。您投入的时间和努力很大程度上决定了您所所选择的策略。
  二、价值行股票和成长型股票
  价格相对于基本面比较便宜的股票就是价值型股票。通常情况下,价值型股票有较高的红利率和较低的市净率或市赢率。大部分的价值型股票都属于比较稳定的大公司。说到价值投资,巴菲特是价值投资的重要代表人物,他认为,在购买股票时要给自己留下犯错误的余地,因此买股票时所支付的价格要低于内在隐含的价值,也就是要有“安全边际”。在巴菲特之前,他的导师Ben Graham和David Dodd就提出过价值投资的理论,后来又不断发展。总得来说,价值投资的核心就是投资者在购买股票时,要买根据基本面分析而认定价格被低估的股票。
  一些公司股票的利润增长速度高于市场平均增长速度,我们称这种股票为成长型股票。通常情况下,这种公司的投资机会更多,他们可以把盈利更多地用来增长公司业务,因此成长型股票是不支付利息的。然而,成长型的股票比较容易被高估其价格,有许多成长型公司在一段时间内快速增长,投资者因为对其前景过于乐观,为了追求增长而大量买入,结果其业务和利润在快速增长一段时间后,增长率便趋于平稳了,投资者也会因此付出相应的代价。2000年的科技泡沫就是很好的例子。
  实际上,价值是所有股票投资的基础,在成长型股票面前,也不能过于兴奋而盲目采取行动,首先要研究它的价值,进而判断其是否值得投资。因此,这种分类的意义不大。
  三、按行业分类
  全球行业分类标准(GICS)分为:能源、材料、工业、金融、信息技术、必须消费品、非必须消费品、卫生保健、通讯服务、公用事业等产业。在投资时,可以把目标公司的历史和现实的各种数据与同行业的公司相比较,然后进行研究决定。按照行业进行分类是投资者进行决策时所必须的,也是股市历史数据研究和比较的基础。
  根据用途和使用机构的不同,企业的分类也不同。全球行业分类标准 (Global Industry Classification Standard, GICS)和行业分类基准(Industry Classification Benchmark, ICB)是目前美国和国际上大部分股票市场常用的。除此之外,汤普森路透企业标准 (Thomson Reuters Business Classification, TRBC)以及美国政府统计部门使用的北美行业分类标准 (North America Industry Classification System) 和标准行业分类(SIC)等都是比较常用的。
  全球行业分类标准 (GICS)是由摩根斯丹利和标准普尔共同设计的,标准普尔和MSCI金融市场的所有指数都使用这一分类标准。它包括10个产业部门、25个行业组、68个行业以及154个子行业。所有上市公司,根据其主营业务的差别,都可以在这一标准的分类找到自己所属的行业。
  部门号
  产业部门
  行业号
  行业组
  10
  Energy 能源
  1010
  Energy 能源
  15
  Materials 材料
  1510
  Materials 材料
  20
  Industrials 工业
  2010
  Capital Goods 资本货物
  2020
  Commercial &; Professional Services 商业和专业服务
  2030
  Transportation 运输
  25
  Consumer Discretionary
  非必需消费品
  2510
  Automobile and Components
  汽车和部件
  2520
  Consumer Durables and Apparel
  耐用消费品和服装
  2530
  Consumer Services 消费服务
  2540
  Media 媒体
  2550
  Retailing 零售
  30
  Consumer Staples
  必需消费品
  3010
  Food &; Staples Retailing
  食品和必需品零售
  3020
  Food, Beverage &; Tobacco
  食品、饮料和烟草
  3030
  Household &; Personal Products
  家庭和个人用品
  35
  Health Care 卫生保健
  3510
  Health Care Equipment &; Services
  卫生保健仪器和服务
  3520
  Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology &; Life Science
  医药、生物制药和生命科学
  40
  Financials 金融
  4010
  Banks 银行
  4020
  Diversified Financials 金融集团
  4030
  Insurance 保险
  4040
  Real Estate 房地产
  45
  Information Technology
  信息技术
  4510
  Software &; Services 软件和服务
  4520
  Technology Hardware &; Equipment
  技术硬件和设备
  4530
  Semiconductors &; Semiconductor Equipment
  半导体和半导体设备
  50
  Telecommunication Services 通讯服务
  5010
  Telecommunication Services
  通讯服务
  55
  Utilities 公用事业
  5510
  Utilities 公用事业
  行业分类基准(Industry Classification Benchmark, ICB)是由道琼斯和FTSE设计的,这套行业划分标准与全球行业分类标准有所不同,它包括10个行业、20个子行业、41个分支行业以及114个行细分,它主要被用于纳斯达克、纽约股票交易所和国际上的一些其它股票交易所。
  上面所讲的两个不同的分类标准,还有其他一些常用的的行业划分标准,他们之间并不是完全不同的,而是有很多类似的地方,但是,我们在研究不同公司的统计数据时,要注意的是这些分类之间的差别。总之,只有花费时间和精力去细心研究,才能做出比较明智的选择。


How to invest like Warren Buffett - MoneyWeek Investment Tutorials

Here is the link.


七大因素解读美国股市因何强劲

Here is the link.

受美联储加息与美国贸易战拖累,美国三大股市去年12月暴跌,美国金融市场一片惊魂,美元汇率等由此也产生了一定的宽幅震荡。
  特朗普为防止经济危机在其任期爆发,对美联储大发雷霆,多次指责美联储,而美国投资者也对美联储的加息过快给予抨击,美联储在特朗普与市场的双重压力下,不得不做出鸽派回应,停止加息脚步,静观市场变化。 
  1美联储表态暂时停止加息
  美联储虽然停止加息,但是并没有完全封闭加息通道,目前CPI不高,也不能构成美联储减息信号,而美元与欧日元息差存在正值空间,所以美元回流美国的趋势还没有扭转,市场的流动性依然充沛。
  2多国去美元计划导致美国流动性较强
  由于俄国、伊朗、土耳其、巴基斯坦、沙特、印度等都不同程度的推行了去美元计划,导致美元固步本土,强化了美国国内的流动性。
  3英国脱欧导致国际资本美元避险
  英国脱欧让国际市场担忧英镑与欧元的动荡,虽然美元令人担忧,但是两权相害取其轻,所以一部分国际资本转移到美元上,这也促进了美国的流动性。
4中美贸易谈判转暖风
  贸易谈判问题对美国股市影响非常大,前期美国投行在市场回调后大力买入中概股,同期大量国际资本流入中国A股市场,这些现象说明国际资本对两国贸易谈判的预期是乐观的,这才是美国股市上涨的最重要因素之一。若谈判成功,显然利于两国经济发展,这对股市有明显的支撑作用。
  5美国上市公司回购促涨
  上市公司通过回购既可以稳定股价,又可以通过这一形式向股东分配利益,同时还可以合法避税。所以股市大跌以后,一批上市公司主动回购,助涨了股价。
  6股指期货对赌的结果
  去年美股大跌,不少投行与投资者做空期指,从而给了做多机构以对赌机会,由于华尔街一些大投行资金充沛,又能投特朗普所好,所以大幅拉抬股市,迫使做空期指的投行纷纷被迫平仓,导致期指一路上行。
  7不排除技术陷阱设置
  美股从技术形态看,长线指标显著超买,尤其是年线的一些指标高得惊人,这种情况下股市往往容易出问题,目前由于美国流动性偏强,华尔街资本充裕,所以股市当前更多地体现为货币游戏,维持高位震荡,但不排除这是华尔街的技术陷阱要求。
  德国著名投资家安德烈.科斯托兰尼曾用主人和狗来形容经济与股市的关系,他认为当狗离开主人一段距离时,就会主动回到主人身边。由于美国股市当前更多地是货币现象的反映,而缺乏经济上的实质支撑,所以美股的持续上行令美国很多投行与投资者忧心,认为美股已经偏离美国经济本质,美股终会产生危机而回归。市场总是这样,低位时会令人恐惧,高位时会令人欢呼,美国股市正在怂恿投资者们发出欢呼声。

The fastest way to value an income stock - MoneyWeek Investment Tutorials

Here is the link.


Six numbers every investor should know - MoneyWeek Investment Tutorials

Here is the link.


Case study: 2001 Sept. - 2002 August home maker

May 5, 2019

Introduction


It is my personal finance research. I like to do a case study what I did when I was a home maker in 2001. Why I did not do a good job to conduct research and catch up important things in the life.

Case study


I will come back to write more.

Six things every investor should know about return on capital employed (ROCE)

Here is the link.


How to spot a fallen angel - MoneyWeek Investment Tutorials

Here is the link.


How rebalancing can boost your wealth - MoneyWeek Investment Tutorials

Here is the link.


Comparison study: Algorithm practice vs personal finance research

May 5, 2019

Introduction


It is my short research topic. What is difference between algorithm practice and personal finance research. I like to write a blog on this topic.

Algorithm practice


The goal is not so clear. I like to work for a biggest software company so that I do not need to worry too much on other things. Free food, good benefits and other perks. But ultimately the goal is to push myself to be a good problem solver, and also be very competitive. I started from January 2015 and ended on Nov. 2018. I decided to take a break to work on personal finance research.


Personal finance research


I started the research the first time in my life. I do not know what I am thinking and make a living so many years. I do not show some determination to be rich and wealth. I do not pay attention how to build wealth and grow rich. I became a Christian after the first laidoff in 2001.

My personal finance research starting from Nov. 2018 leaded me how to invest on US stock market and USA economy. I cannot afford a one-bedroom condo in Vancouver area. I know that my research is falling behind. I spend my free time on wrong things.

I spent a lot of time on Willingdon church activities. I need to push myself to start to work on money research.




What should you do if you're light on Bonds?

Here is the link.


published on Jul 21, 2014

15:55/ 35:35

What should you do if you're light on Bonds?

  • Rebalance into bonds, but limit interest-rate sensitivity and keep credit quality high
  • Invest with flexible core fixed-income funds such as Dodge & Cox income, Metropolitan West Total Return
  • If retirement is close at hand and you're notably underweight bonds, de-risk immediately
    • Move bond money to cash
    • Dollar-cost average during a period of months

Vanguard Equity Income Fund Investor Shares (VEIPX)

Here is the link. 

Product summary

This fund is designed to provide investors with an above-average level of current income while offering exposure to the stock market. Since the fund typically invests in companies that are dedicated to consistently paying dividends, it may have a higher yield than other Vanguard stock mutual funds. The fund’s emphasis on slower-growing, higher-yielding companies can also mean that its total return may not be as strong in a significant bull market. This income-focused fund may be appropriate for investors who have a long-term investment goal and a tolerance for stock market volatility.


Favorite Value-Learning Funds (Gold- or Silver-Rated)

Here is the link.

published on Jul 21, 2014


13:51/ 35:35
Favorite Value-Learning Funds (Gold- or Silver-Rated)

  • Dodge & Cox Stock (DODGX): Gold
  • American Funds American Mutual (AMRMX): Gold
  • American Funds Washington Mutual (AWSHX): Gold
  • Artisan Value (ARTLX): Silver
  • Sound Shore (SSHFX): Silver
  • Tweedy, Browne Global Value (TBGVX): Silver
  • Vanguard Equity-Income (VEIPX): Silver
  • Vanguard value Index  (VIVAX): Silver
  • Vanguard Windsor II (VWNFX): Silver

Actionable Item


Study Vanguard Eqity-Income (VEIPX) fund. There are three styles, value, blend, growth. 

What should you do if you're light on stocks?

Here is the link.

published on Jul 21, 2014


11:58/ 35:35
What should  you do if you're light on stocks?

  • Stay mindful of current valuations: Average price/fair value for Morningstar's covered stocks = 1.04
  • Employ a dollar-cost averaging strategy, deploying fixed amounts at regular intervals
  • Make sure you have a good value-oriented manager (or two) in your portfolio
  • Look to Morningstar's highly rated stocks for ideas
  • Hold a bit of extra cash to meet opportunities as they arise

Actionable Items


I am light on stocks. What should I do? 

I have $3000 dollars RRSP with Scotia US Index fund, and April 30, 2019, I put Par tech 401 K $6,200 dollars into stock market with 30% on bonds, 70% on stocks. 

I will transfer $20,000 US dollar to NYCB IRA CD into stock account Ameritrade.com and then work on portfolio as well. 


A Portfolio Checkup in 6 Steps

Here is the link.

published on Jul 21, 2014

1:52/ 35:35
Best practice for Portfolio checkups

  • infrequent: Annual, semi-annual, or quarterly at the most
  • targeted: Employ a checklist to help you get in and out
  • Fundamentally driven, not just focused on performance
  • Progress from most important to less important variables
  • Take tax and transaction costs into account if changes are needed
2:14/ 35:35
6 steps in the portfolio-checkup process
  • step 1: Gauge viability of current plan
  • step 2: Evaluate portfolio positioning
  • step 3: Check liquid reserves
  • step 4: Review individual holdings
  • step 5: Troubleshoot current risk factors
  • step 6: Conduct a cost audit
3:51 / 35:35

Step 1: Gauge viability of current plan (Accumulators)


  • Thumbnail test: 15% current salary = annual savings target
  • Fidelity benchmarks:
    • Save 1X current salary by age 35
    • Save 3X current salary by age 45
    • Save 5X current salary by age 55
  • 401(k) contribution limits, 2014: $17,500 ($23,000 50+)
  • IRA contribution limits, 2014: $5,500 ($6,500 50+)
  • Use an online calculator to gauge adequacy of current investments and savings rate. 
  • Online tools include:
    • T. Row Price Retirement Income Calculator
    • Fidelity Retirement Quick Check
    • Fidelity Retirement Income Planner
6:54/ 35:35
Step 1: Gauge viability of current plan (Accumulators)
  • The best tools are holistic and factor in:
    • inflation
    • Reasonable return expectations, variability of returns (Monte Carlo modeling)
    • Taxes
    • The role of other income sources, such as pensions and Social Security
7:50/ 35:35
  • If already retired and taking withdrawals, check viability of current withdrawal rate
  • The traditional rule of thumb is that 4% with an annual inflation adjustment is a safe withdrawal rate for most
    • For someone with an $800,000 portfolio:
    • -- Year 1 withdrawal: $32,000
    • -- Year 2 withdrawal: $32,960 (assuming 3% inflation)
  • Recent research suggests an even more conservative withdrawal rate (3%) makes sense given low bond yields
9:19/ 35:35

Step 2: Evaluate Portfolio Positioning
  • Morningstar's X-Ray tool a good starting point
  • Portfolio Manager enables you to X-Ray, as does Instant X-Ray (on Tools tab of Morningstar.com)
10:21/ 35:35
Step 2: Evaluate Portfolio Positioning

  • Focus on asset allocation relative to your targets (Morningstar Lifetime Allocation Indexes and target-date funds can be a starting point)
  • Check sector/style positioning
  • Geographic exposure
  • Individual stock overload
11:58/ 35:35
What should  you do if you're light on stocks?

  • Stay mindful of current valuations: Average price/fair value for Morningstar's covered stocks = 1.04
  • Employ a dollar-cost averaging strategy, deploying fixed amounts at regular intervals
  • Make sure you have a good value-oriented manager (or two) in your portfolio
  • Look to Morningstar's highly rated stocks for ideas
  • Hold a bit of extra cash to meet opportunities as they arise
13:51/ 35:35
Favorite Value-Learning Funds (Gold- or Silver-Rated)

  • Dodge & Cox Stock (DODGX): Gold
  • American Funds American Mutual (AMRMX): Gold
  • American Funds Washington Mutual (AWSHX): Gold
  • Artisan Value (ARTLX): Silver
  • Sound Shore (SSHFX): Silver
  • Tweedy, Browne Global Value (TBGVX): Silver
  • Vanguard Equity-Income (VEIPX): Silver
  • Vanguard value Index  (VIVAX): Silver
  • Vanguard Windsor II (VWNFX): Silver
14:43/ 35:35

Favorite reasonably priced stocks (4-star plus wide moat, low uncertainty)

  • Baxter International (BAX)
  • Colorx (CLX)
  • Enbridge (ENB)
  • ExxonMobil (XOM)
  • Philip Morris (MO)
  • Procter & Gamble (PG)
  • Spectra Energy Partners (SEP)
  • Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)
15:55/ 35:35

What should you do if you're light on Bonds?

  • Rebalance into bonds, but limit interest-rate sensitivity and keep credit quality high
  • Invest with flexible core fixed-income funds such as Dodge & Cox income, Metropolitan West Total Return
  • If retirement is close at hand and you're notably underweight bonds, de-risk immediately
    • Move bond money to cash
    • Dollar-cost average during a period of months
18:50/ 35:35
19:51/ 35:35
Step 2: Evaluate portfolio positioning: Some benchmarks

Global market-cap distribution
U.S.: 48%
Rest of world: 52%
Developed markets: 90.9%
Developed markets: 9.1%

21:24/ 35:35
Step 3: check liquid reserves

Baseline amount if retired:
6 months' to 2 years' worth of living expenses

Baseline amount if working:
3 to 6 months' worth of living expenses

Do not count:
Residual cash in mutual funds, short-term bonds ( manually calculate; don't use X-Ray tools)

23:00/ 35:35

Step 4: Review individual holdings

  • Morningstar ratings analyst report enable you to quickly review the status of current holdings. 
  • For funds, red flags include:
    • Ratings, manager, strategy changes
    • Persistent underperformance vs. cheap index fund
    • Dramatically heavy stock, sector bets
  • For stocks, red flags include:
    • High price/fair value, low star rating
    • Negative moat trend
25:17/ 35:35

Step 5: Troubleshoot potential risk factors
  • Risk Factor 1: Tricky times for bond investors
  • Risk Factor 2: Complacency about inflation
  • Risk Factor 3: Overvaluation in small and mid-caps
26:06/ 35:35

Risk Factor 1: Tricky times for bond investors
  • Investors have been high-yield bonds: ~ $7 billion in new flows during past year
  • But the yield differential (or "spread") between high-yield bonds and Treasures is just 3.4 percentage points
  • Spreads have only this low 9% of the time since 1996
  • Fed chair Janet Yellen: "High-yield bonds have certainly caught our attention. There is some evidence of reach-for-yield behavior."
27:24/ 35:35

High-quality bonds carry risks of their own: greater interest-rate sensitivity
  • Consider the following "duration stress test" for your high-quality holdings
  • The fund's duration minus fund's SEC yield = expected loss over one-year period if interest rates rose by 1 percentage point
  • Stress test most useful for high-quality bond types, less useful for junk bonds, international bonds, etc. 
28:28/ 35:35
Stress test examples
  • Vanguard Total Bond Market Index
  • Duration of 5.6 years minus SEC yield of 2% = ~3.6% loss if rates rose by 1 percent point
  • Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index
  • Duration of 14.2 minus SEC yield of 4.1% = ~10% loss if rates rose by 1 percentage point
29:48/ 35:35
Risk Factor 2: Complacency about inflation
  • Investors have been selling inflation-protected bond funds; $26 billion in outflows during the past year
  • Motivations included high interest-rate sensitivity, benign CPI
  • But even though CPI is mild, investors' actual inflation experiences might be different
  • Food prices increased by 0.7% in May 2014; energy prices increased by 0.9%
31:10/ 35;35
Risk Factor 2: Complacency about inflation

  • Best sources of inflation protection include the following:
    • TIPS (Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities a favorite - VTIP or VTIPX)
    • Stocks, especially wide moats with pricing power
    • Real estate, commodities, gold
    • Bank-loan investments
32:39/ 35:25
Risk factor 3: overvaluation among small and Mid-caps
  • Median price/fair value for all stocks in our coverage universe = 1.04
  • Median price/fair value for small- and mid-cap stocks in our coverage universe = 1.06
  • If peeling back on stocks as part of rebalancing program, concentrate reductions here
33:26/ 35;25
Step 6: Conduct a cost audit
  • Total portfolio cost audit: Compare your porfolio's expense ratio (in X-Ray) to that of a good target-date fund for your age range. 
  • Expense ratio for T. Rowe Price Retirement 2025: 0.72%
  • Expense ratio for Vanguard Target 2015: 0.17%

35:11/ 35:35
Step 6: Conduct a cost audit

  • Holdings-level cost audit for index funds, ETFs
  • ETF price wars have been good for consumers
  • Are your holdings as cheap as the cheapest funds available to retail investors in each asset class?
    • U.S. Stock: 0.04%
    • International Stock: 0.09%
    • Bond: 0.05%




Case study: 2010 - 2019 weekend and holiday break and vacation study

May 5, 2019

Introduction


It is my personal finance research. I find out that I run out of time to learn personal finance and investing study. There are so many hours I have to study before I can put those $30,000 US dollars and those $30,000 Canadian dollars into stock market. I like to figure out what I spend time from 2010 to 2019. What are most time wastes in terms of budgeting, and planning and personal development. The opportunity cost I lost from 2010 to 2019 to invest those 401 K and IRA fund, what are the most common reasons to lead those life style I chose to live.

Case study



Sell-Off Creates Opportunity for Portfolio Checkup

Here is the link.

Technology selling - hitting hard, health care stock goes down, energy sector hits hard, value stock holds better than growth.

Bond - gravite to safety, corporate bond.

This is the time for you to do overall portfolio checkup.

Tax situation, year-end. Extra one day or two to review, deep breath, survey damage in your portfolio.

What is the first step?

Wellness check - accumulation step - what is your saving rate? 10% threshold.

Last minutes 401 K contribution.

Perhaps push more on retirement plan.

Sustainable rate - belt tighting, try to reduce withdraw.

How do you know it is time for you to create portfolio?

Post 50 years old, it is great time to get there. Equity heavy, little check on liquid reservation.
Many years retirement, in 30s or 40s. You should see most heavy portfolio. Do not need to do a lot of shift.

Growth hits hard - use this opportunity to check exposure of asset
Rate, tilts,


Vanguard ETFs

Here is the web page to show all Vanguard ETFs.