Here is the link.
4 things to cover 0:43/ 26:09
1. Cause
2. Definitions
3. The history
4. Preparation
Recession 2:07/ 26:09
6 months economic decline
Depression
A recession lasting 2 yrs & decline in GDP by 10%
Black Swan 3:32/ 26:09
Difficult to predict & Extreme consequences
4:00/ 26:09
Since 1926 to today, what percentage of the market has been in the positive?
74%
History of bear markets 5:18/ 26:09
Start duration S&P return Recovery Period GDP decline
May 1946 36 -30 15 1.7%
Aug 1956 15 -22 11 3.7%
Dec 1961 6 -28 14 1.6%
Feb 1966 8 -22 7 .6%
Nov 1968 18 -36 21 .6%
Jan 1973 21 -48 69 3.2%
Nov 1980 20 -27 3 2.2%
Aug 1987 3 -34 19 2.7%
July 1990 3 -20 5 1.4%
Mar 2000 31 -49 55 .3%
Mar 2007 17 -57 65 5.4%
Cause of crash 8:10 / 26:09
1. Fake $$$
2. Fake success
A guy, 18 property, 18 million dollars, short sales. Crash...
3. Market manipulation
4. Geopolitical terror 9/11
5. Conflict (foreign) - trade/ tariff
6. War
7. Assassination
market tanks 2.8%
8. Bubbles 10:42/ 26:09
. Too optimistic
. Lack of paranoia
. Bubbles controlled by govt
. Lack of irrational common sense
. Unreasonable confidence
Qualitative easing - google search
Preparation 16:15/ 26:09
1. Anticipation
.MKT has been positive 9 consecutive years
2. risk tolerance - 55 vs 31 yr old
3. Stay cash 15 - 25%
4. Avoid major real estate contract
5. Cash in some of your profits
6. Precious metal 5%
7. Protect your career
8. Call a time out & study your portfolio
Today Dow 25,770 6508
S&P 2,723 676
23:00 / 26:09
Amateur will be exploited. Because they entertain themselves.
Expert will be elevated.
Look at weekly, not quarterly.
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