GTE stock: 2021 Will Be Another Disastrous Year For Colombia’s Oil Industry

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原标题：2021年对哥伦比亚石油工业来说又是灾难性的一年

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价4月19日报道，新冠肺炎疫情沉重地打击了哥伦比亚经济，其至关重要的能源部门，受到的冲击尤为严重。在实施了2020年期间世界上最长的出行限制措施之后，更是将经济推向崩溃的边缘。最近新冠肺炎病例急剧增加，迫使这个安第斯国家的主要城市重新采取封锁措施。受影响最严重的是热门旅游城市麦德林和哥伦比亚最重要的港口巴兰基利亚，目前已经实施了严格的宵禁和出行限制。这些措施将影响许多经济部门，包括至关重要的石油工业，并严重影响哥伦比亚迫切需要的复苏。

　　2020年，油价暴跌，加上疫情对能源行业的冲击，导致哥伦比亚国内生产总值萎缩近7%，这是哥伦比亚有记录以来最严重的经济衰退。要知道，哥伦比亚十分依赖石油，即使在油价跌至负值、布伦特原油平均价格为41.96美元/桶的这一年，原油仍占该国财政收入的17%、出口收入的28%和GDP的3%。在2014年底油价暴跌之前，原油的经济重要性甚至更大。它创造了超过五分之一的政府收入，超过哥伦比亚出口总值的60%，几乎占GDP的5%。在石油行业复苏的带动下，哥伦比亚预计将在2021年实现强劲的经济反弹，国际货币基金组织和中央银行均预测其GDP增长将超过5%，但未来仍有很大的阻力。

　　最紧迫的风险是新冠肺炎病例的急剧增加，以及哥伦比亚主要城市重新实行封锁措施，这将给本已脆弱的经济带来沉重压力。导致GDP增长速度、商业活动和税收收入下降，给陷入财政困境的国家政府带来更大压力。哥伦比亚财政部在2021年3月强调了其不稳定的财政状况，财政赤字达到了GDP的8.6%，这是有史以来的最高水平，超过了2020年报告的7.8%，要知道，当时GDP收缩了近7%。如果经济要复苏，资金短缺的哥伦比亚迫切需要通过吸引更多投资来重振能源部门。

　　尽管政府和哥伦比亚峰值工业组织哥伦比亚石油协会(ACP ）对石油工业的前景表示相当乐观，但数据却呈现出不同的画面。2021年1月，ACP预计每年的勘探和生产投资为31亿美元至34.5亿美元。虽然较2020年增长51%，但仍比2019年的40.3亿美元少5.8亿美元。油气产量低于需求，突显出石油行业尚未恢复疫情爆发前的运营水平。2021年2月，哥伦比亚的石油产量为745769桶/天，与2020年同期相比下降了15%，令人担忧。更令人担忧的是，正如贝克休斯的钻机数据所显示的那样，哥伦比亚油田的活动并没有以所需的速度增长。截至2021年3月底，哥伦比亚只有14台钻机在作业，而去年同期为25台，几乎是这个数字的两倍。

　　这些数字表明，尽管政府实施了旨在促进石油公司投资的战略，包括通过退税或取消增值税来减轻税收，但支出仍未达到要求的水平。不断上升的财政压力，加上最新一轮封锁导致的经济活动下降，将迫使哥伦比亚减少支出，甚至可能减少石油行业的税收减免和其他激励措施。最近提出的税制改革，该国正寻求提高相当于GDP 1.5%的税收收入，这表明该国目前经济的状态十分萎靡，并透露出自2018年以来推出的许多企业税收优惠可能都会被削减甚至取消的讯号。如果这种情况发生，将阻止外国石油公司在已经动荡和高度不确定的经营环境中进一步投资。

　　另一个正在出现的不利因素是，人们越来越怀疑新的大宗商品超级周期的说法。全球新冠肺炎病例增多、新一轮封锁以及疫苗推广缓慢，都在给全球经济带来压力，影响到金属和原油行业。据彭博社报道，投资者正在抛售大宗商品，尤其是金属产品，而且危机已经蔓延到原油板块。一个月前有关布伦特原油价格将逼近每桶80美元甚至100美元的说法很是令人怀疑。在2021年剩下的时间里，油价将会波动，尤其是现在欧佩克和其他国家已经表示将逐步取消减产，包括沙特阿拉伯每天100万桶的额外减产——这促使2021年1月油价上涨。增产将打压原油价格，尤其是如果美国和巴西等非欧佩克产油国继续增加石油产量的话。布伦特原油价格走弱对哥伦比亚构成了相当大的风险，因为该国境内的盈亏平衡价格较高，税后价格估计高达45美元/桶。

　　值得一提的是，哥伦比亚生产的大部分石油都是含硫中质或重质原油，但自从IMO2020的引入以及全球持续大力降低燃料硫含量以来，这种原油越来越不受欢迎。南美有一些危险程度较低、保本价格较低的地区，这些地区生产的原油是轻质的，这让它们成为外国能源公司的首选目的地。从而使得哥伦比亚主要城市，特别是该国大部分油田所在的农村地区的不安，因为这些地区对外国石油生产商而言，风险更大。

　　王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

　　原文如下：

　　2021 Will Be Another Disastrous Year For Colombia’s Oil Industry

　　The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Colombia and its economy, including the vital energy sector, particularly hard. After implementing one of the world’s longest pandemic lockdowns during 2020, which took the economy to the brink of collapse, a recent sharp spike in COVID-19 cases has forced the reintroduction of lockdown measures across the Andean country’s major cities. It is the popular tourist city of Medellin and Colombia’s all-important principal port Barranquilla which are the worst affected, with strict curfews and restrictions on movement now established. Those measures will impact many sectors of the economy including the vital petroleum industry and weigh heavily on Colombia’s desperately required recovery. During 2020, the oil price crash and COVID-19 pandemic sharply impacted the Andean country’s energy sector causing the gross domestic product to contract by almost (Spanish) 7%, Colombia’s worst economic decline on record. The strife-torn country’s dependence on crude oil becomes apparent when, even in a year where prices plunged into negative territory and Brent averaged $41.96 per barrel, it still accounted for 17% of fiscal revenue, 28% of export earnings, and 3% of GDP. Before the late-2014 oil price collapse, the economic importance of crude oil was even greater. It generated over a fifth of government revenue, more than 60% of Colombia’s exports by value, and almost 5% of GDP. While a strong economic rebound for Colombia is projected for 2021, led by a recovering petroleum industry, with the IMF and central bank both forecasting GDP growth of over 5%, there are significant headwinds ahead.

　　The most pressing risk is the sharp uptick in COVID-19 cases and renewed lockdowns in Colombia’s major cities, which will weigh heavily on an already fragile economy. These will cause GDP growth, business activity, and tax revenue to decline placing greater pressure on a fiscally embattled national government. Bogota’s precarious finances are highlighted by Colombia’s finance ministry, in March 2021, raising the fiscal deficit to a startling 8.6% of GDP, its highest level ever and greater than the 7.8% deficit reported for 2020 when GDP contracted by nearly 7%. A cash-strapped Bogota urgently needs to reactivate the energy sector, by attracting additional investment, if the economy is to recover.

　　While the Duque administration and Colombia’s peak industry body the Colombian Petroleum Association (ACP – Spanish initials) expressed considerable optimism regarding the petroleum industry’s outlook the numbers present a different picture. In January 2021, the ACP projected an annual exploration and production investment of $3.1 billion to $3.45 billion. While at the bottom end that represents a 51% increase over 2020, it is still at least $580 million shy of the $4.03 billion invested during 2019. Weaker than required hydrocarbon production highlights that the oil industry has yet to return to pre-pandemic operations. For February 2021, Colombia pumped 745,769 barrels per day, a worrying 15% decrease compared to the equivalent period for 2020, and similarly reported production volumes since the pandemic hit the Andean country. More worrying is that activity in Colombia’s oil patch, as shown by the Baker Hughes rig count, is not rising at the rate required. By the end of March 2021, there were only 14 drill rigs operating in Colombia compared to almost double that number, 25 drill rigs, for the same period a year earlier.

　　Those numbers indicate that despite the Duque Administration implementing strategies aimed at boosting oil company investment, including tax relief through refunding or removing value-added tax, spending is falling short of the required levels. Rising fiscal pressures, combined with the declining economic activity caused by the latest round of lockdowns, will force Bogota to ease spending and potentially even the tax breaks and other incentives extended to the petroleum industry. Recently proposed tax reform, where the Duque administration is seeking to raise taxation revenue equivalent to 1.5% of GDP not only illustrates Bogota’s desperation but that many of the corporate tax benefits introduced since 2018 could be reduced or even removed. If that occurs it will deter further investment from foreign oil companies in what is already a volatile and highly uncertain operating environment.

　　Another emerging headwind is the growing skepticism over claims of a new commodity supercycle. Rising COVID-19 cases and renewed lockdowns around the world along with sluggish vaccine rollouts are weighing on the global economic outlook impacting metals and crude oil. According to Bloomberg, investors are dumping commodities, notably metals, and the contagion has spread to crude oil, making proclamations from a month ago that Brent is headed to $80 or even $100 a barrel appearing doubtful. Oil prices will be volatile over the remainder of 2021, especially now that OPEC Plus countries have flagged the gradual unwinding of production cuts, including Saudi Arabia’s one million barrels per day, which triggered the January 2021 oil price rally. That will weigh on crude oil prices, particularly if major no-OPEC producers such as the U.S. and Brazil continue to bolster petroleum production. Weaker Brent pricing poses a considerable risk for Colombia because of its high onshore breakeven prices, which are estimated to be up to $45 per barrel after tax. Most of the petroleum produced in Colombia is comprised of sour medium to heavy grade crude oils, which are becoming increasingly less popular since the introduction of IMO2020 and the ongoing global push to substantially reduce the sulfur content of fuels. There are less hazardous jurisdictions with significantly lower breakeven prices in South America, which produce lighter sweeter grades of crude oil, making them superior destinations for foreign energy companies. Heightened insecurity in major cities and particularly the rural regions where much of Colombia’s oilfields are located poses a significant risk for foreign oil producers.