Saturday, September 26, 2020

Another 20 - 30% drop - SPX 500 index: Charting the next big drop

 Here is the link. 

I watched the video again and again over 10 times while I cleaned the room inside my home in the city of Vancouver. I like to take some notes and then share with my friends. 

1:07/ 6:21

  1. Investment risky, 10 drop, and it tends to drop more. 
  2. Mean decline is 27%, cascade to more once it is 10%
  3. Review four weeks in row - week 5 prediction 
  4. Market leadership focus on technology - 
  5. cyclical, energy vs technology, a few champions - try to recover 

S&P 500 

  1. Now down 4 weeks in a row
  2. Week 5 is up 61% of the time; 
  3. Week 5 is down 39% of the time
  4. After a 4-week decline, week 5 mean perf.  +0.3%, week 5 median perf. +0.63%
3:54 

  1. 2860 SPX - 
  2. 23 days to covid low - 2300 
  3. 90 days go back to level

Big pullback starting from next week  
  1. Break down 3000
  2. My dip is 20% down from all time high 
  3. 10% down, median 20% - 25% down to buy
  4. Central government gave support around SPX 2800 




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