OTRK stock - plan to purchase $500 US dollars
Here’s the deal - OTRK gave guidance for FY21 that was, while still almost 25% above FY20 results, was WAY below consensus guidance.
Why? See the PR that pre-announced their results. They lost their largest client. And while I understand OTRK’s justification (this customer focused on reducing costs, not on medical results achieved), it is still their largest client.
Would I be shocked to see $25 in the next week? No. Would I buy a s***-ton if it does? Yes.
Strong opportunity here to rewind the clock a bit, get on board this fast-growing small company. Losing a big customer at this stage hurts, an outsized impact on the immediate bottom line. However looking at the company growth and revenue trajectory, a company in a great spot to help firms worldwide in the post-Covid health issues environment, the short-term loss of revenue will be quickly swallowed up by new and expanded existing business. This will likely be at least 2x current price (2x30s) in a couple quarters... back to January levels by end of 2021 and 120+ by end of 2022.
Also... this is a prime time post-Cigna/MDLive acquisition... for another major insurer to expand into this AI behavioral healthcare space, AMWL to think about acquiring OTRK to better compete with TDOC/LVGO, or would be a savvy move for TDOC to pre-emptively acquire OTRK itself for an accretive addition to merge with LVGO addition. All good for OTRK long term... a fantastic opportunity today! I'm loading up.
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