退休后如何投资？这是每个人迟早都会面临的问题。传统的模式是60%股票，40%债券， 第一年支取4%，逐年随通胀率增加。这个模式越来越行不通了。其主要原因是，股票与债券已经失去了过去的对冲作用。从前，股票涨， 债券跌。反之亦然。但是现在，两者趋于同步。再者，债券的收益率太低。十年的联邦债券收益率低于2%。
有人提出新的模式，即股票80%，债券20%。问题还是没有解决。如果在退休的最初几年，股市下跌，而你还要提现，你的资金可能支撑不了二十年。众所周知，美国股市2000年开始下跌，经过十三年，直到2013年才超过1999年的水平。如果有人刚好在1999年退休，恐怕股票账户里的钱，到2013就提光了，从而错过了近几年股市的大涨。
Fact? Let me do some homework and show step by step how to solve the problem.
I like to look into the argument:
US stock from 2000 to 2013, it takes 13 years to go up more than 1999.
I like to look into US index for each year from 1999 to 2013, table is copied from wiki page.
Year change Total
in index Annual
Return
Including
Dividends
| 1999 | 19.53% | 21.04% | $47.44 | 28.56% | 18.21% | 18.93% | 17.88% | 17.25% |
| 2000 | −10.14% | −9.10% | $43.12 | 18.33% | 17.46% | 16.02% | 15.68% | 15.34% |
| 2001 | −13.04% | −11.89% | $37.99 | 10.70% | 12.94% | 13.74% | 15.24% | 13.78% |
| 2002 | −23.37% | −22.10% | $29.60 | −0.59% | 9.34% | 11.48% | 12.71% | 12.98% |
| 2003 | 26.38% | 28.68% | $38.09 | −0.57% | 11.07% | 12.22% | 12.98% | 13.84% |
| 2004 | 8.99% | 10.88% | $42.23 | −2.30% | 12.07% | 10.94% | 13.22% | 13.54% |
| 2005 | 3.00% | 4.91% | $44.30 | 0.54% | 9.07% | 11.52% | 11.94% | 12.48% |
| 2006 | 13.62% | 15.79% | $51.30 | 6.19% | 8.42% | 10.64% | 11.80% | 13.37% |
| 2007 | 3.53% | 5.49% | $54.12 | 12.83% | 5.91% | 10.49% | 11.82% | 12.73% |
| 2008 | −38.49% | −37.00% | $34.09 | −2.19% | −1.38% | 6.46% | 8.43% | 9.77% |
| 2009 | 23.45% | 26.46% | $43.11 | 0.42% | −0.95% | 8.04% | 8.21% | 10.54% |
| 2010 | 12.78% | 15.06% | $49.61 | 2.29% | 1.41% | 6.76% | 9.14% | 9.94% |
| 2011 | -0.00% | 2.11% | $50.65 | −0.25% | 2.92% | 5.45% | 7.81% | 9.28% |
| 2012 | 13.41% | 16.00% | $58.76 | 1.66% | 7.10% | 4.47% | 8.22% | 9.71% |
| 2013 | 29.60% | 32.39% | $77.79 | 17.94% | 7.40% | 4.68% | 9.22% | 10.26% |
Follow up
Dec. 28, 2019 2:42 PM
It is important skill to learn and then I can quickly calculate the return of S & P 500 index.
I have over $10,000 us dollars in my 401K account. I should put 60% S & P 500 index, 40% bond, so that in 2002, $6000 S & P 500 index will lose 40% value, $3600 dollars, so I could have sell $1000 bond to purchase equity. So those $1000 dollars will go up to $1260 at the end of 2003, the equity value is $7200, the bond value is $3000. So it is time to think about to sell $1200 equity to purchase bond.
1999
2000 first dip, buy low (10% loss - rebalance)
2001 second dip, buy low (13.14% loss - rebalance)
2002 third dip, buy low (23.37% loss - rebalancne)
2003 bull market, sell those purchase completed in 2000 to 2002.
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Every year S & P 500 index has dividend around 2%, so 14 years total return is (1 + 0.02)^14 = 1.3194.
As a long term investor, it is not difficult to figure out that those over $10,000 401 K investment in early 2000, I should have generated at least over 30% dividend, and also market value goes up at least 46%; and also if I have learned how to rebalance the portfolio, then I will buy low and sell high. Those recession from 2001 to 2002 is great time for me to time the market to purchase and sell in 2003 bull market. 2003 I will have 26% profit for additional purchase.
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