Thursday, May 9, 2024

Benjamin Pace, chief investment officer, Cerity Partners

 Benjamin Pace, chief investment officer, Cerity Partners: The Fed is going to eventually be able to declare victory on inflation. It’s just that going into the year, we thought rate cuts were going to start in March, and now June seems to be off the table too in favor of September. In that environment, there are a couple of things we’re recommending to clients. When you talk about cash management, make sure you’re availing yourself of these higher short-term interest rates. The big banks especially have not felt compelled to increase their short-term rates to the same extent that the regional banks and the money-market funds have. So make sure you’re at least taking advantage of these 5% short-term interest rates.

The second thing is that if the Fed does decrease interest rates, the inverted yield curve should rectify, with short-term rates coming down. That means your cash rates will come down. So it might be a good time, as the 10-year Treasury is sitting at 4.5%, to extend your maturity a little bit. It’s easier said than done though, because you’re asking clients to give up a 5% yielding vehicle to go into a 4.5%- yielding vehicle. But the thought is that the 4.5% yield will stay that way, and the 5% one will come down into the low 4% range in the foreseeable future.

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